Severe Weather Continues Today: Tornadoes, Hail, Wind!

Severe Weather Continues Today: Tornadoes, Hail, Wind!

May 9, 2016 Forecasting Now-casting Severe Weather 0

Today looks to be another active severe weather day including the threat for tornadoes from this afternoon into the evening for portions of eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, northeast Texas, Missouri, eastern Kansas and Nebraska and southwest Iowa. See the Categorical outlook for today’s severe weather below.
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Storms are expected to initiate first this afternoon along the dryline from eastern KS into central ok.  Very steep mid-level lapse rates…Mixed-layer cape values over 2000 j/kg…and favorable westerly flow aloft will promote supercell structures capable of very large hail. Isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out…but the main tornado risk appears to ramp up as the storms track eastward into eastern ok during the late afternoon…and into Arkansas during the evening. Forecast soundings show substantial low level vertical shear over this area…suggesting the potential of strong tornadoes.  A consensus of 12z cam solutions also support the idea of intense supercells affecting this area.  This activity will maintain a substantial tornado risk across much of Arkansas before weakening as it approaches the Mississippi River.

Take a look at the highlighted tornado risk areas for today and notice the 10% “hatched” risk area indicating the possibility of strong tornadoes within that area.

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